© photo : Giulio Grobert
The words of the melancholic song “Yesterday”[1] and Paul McCartney’s voice resonate strongly in 2026, even more in Luxembourg, whose golden age seems to be receding year after year. Thus, the 7th edition of the IDEA Consensus suggests a sense of resignation in the face of the prolonged slowdown in the Luxembourg and European economies, along with a decline in respondents’ confidence compared with last year. Across the responses from members of the Consensus, concerns emerge about the socio-economic situation for 2026 and the medium term. Prospects of a return to inflation are raising concerns about interest rate developments and the construction sector, while uncertainty around the budgetary outlook, the labour market, and progress in tackling climate change are also weighing on sentiment.
Nevertheless, panel members look to the future and are calling for action from European institutions and Luxembourg public authorities. Expectations are high in terms of administrative simplification, public housing construction, tax reforms, investment in AI and defence, proactive European policies in favour of economic immigration, and strengthening the single market.
The results of the Consensus do not reflect the views of IDEA’s economists, but rather those of the 114 panel members who responded to an anonymous questionnaire (12 online questions) between 3 and 23 March 2026. This participation corresponds to a response rate of 38% among the panel’s 300 members. As the war in Iran began on 28 February, views on the economic consequences of this conflict may vary depending on when the panellists responded. IDEA warmly thanks all those who took the time to respond to this survey.
The 2026 Consensus is available for download as a PowerPoint presentation.
[1] Yesterday / All my troubles seemed so far away / Now it looks as though they’re here to stay / Oh, I believe in yesterday.
